Tropical Storm LOWELL

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TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Lowell is well on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone.
The storm has lacked significant deep convection for nearly 12
hours and, if this trend continues, Lowell will likely be declared a
post-tropical cyclone tonight.  The initial wind speed remains
35 kt for this advisory based on the latest Dvorak CI number from
TAFB.  The weakening system is currently over 23 C waters and in a
stable air mass.  These unfavorable conditions should cause Lowell
to degenerate into a remnant low soon.  The post-tropical cyclone is
expected to persist for several days while it gradually spins down.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt, steered by a
low-level ridge to its north.  A slight turn toward the west-
northwest is expected tomorrow, and that general motion with an
increase in forward speed is predicted through the remainder of the
forecast period.  There remains a considerable spread in the
guidance due to model differences in forecasting the strength of
the low-level north of Lowell.  The GFS shows a more westward
track while the ECMWF has a more northwestward motion. The NHC track
forecast lies between these scenarios, and is close to the multi-
model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 24.0N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 24.5N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/1800Z 24.9N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0600Z 25.3N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1800Z 25.7N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z 26.6N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z 28.0N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1800Z 29.5N 144.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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