Tropical Storm SIMON

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TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014

The cloud pattern of Simon has changed little since the previous
advisory.  The tropical cyclone continues to produce a small area
of deep convection well to the north of the exposed low-level
center.  Subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to
slowly decrease and the initial wind speed has been lowered to 40 kt
for this advisory.  Westerly shear of 30 kt or more, along with
cool water, and a drier mid-level atmosphere should cause the
tropical storm to weaken during the next day or so.  Simon is
expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday
and dissipate within 2 to 3 days.

The latest satellite fixes indicate that Simon has turned
north-northeastward or 015/7 kt.  Simon should move north-
northeastward to northeastward in southwesterly flow between a
mid-level ridge to its southeast and an approaching mid-latitude
trough.  The NHC track forecast lies between the ECMWF and the more
poleward GFS.  The new track is close to the previous advisory
through 24 hours, but has been adjusted a little northward
thereafter.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local
weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 26.5N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 27.5N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1200Z 29.8N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0000Z 30.9N 114.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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