Tropical Depression SIMON

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014

An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago indicates that there are no
longer winds of tropical storm force in the circulation.  Therefore
the system is being downgraded to a depression and the tropical
storm watch for Baja California is discontinued.  The current
intensity is 30 kt, and since the wind shear over Simon is forecast
to be very strong and even increase a little more over the next day
or so, additional weakening is expected.  The interaction
with land could cause even more weakening than indicated here.
In any event, given the lack of deep convection, the system is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight.

The north-northeastward motion continues, at around 030/6.
A consensus of the dynamical guidance calls for this general
direction of motion with a little acceleration, for the next 24-36
hours.  This will take Simon, or its remnant low, across
north-central Baja California and into Mainland Mexico.

Even if Simon or its remnant surface circulation does not make it
across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture
associated with this system is expected to spread across the
northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into
the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those
regions during the next few days.  Please refer to statements from
your local weather office for information on hazards specific to
your area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 27.9N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 28.8N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1800Z 30.5N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0600Z 32.2N 113.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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