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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  47.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  47.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  46.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.9N  50.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N  53.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N  56.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N  59.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  20SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N  69.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  47.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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