ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ST. KITTS AND
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* MONTSERRAT
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  56.0W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  90SE  30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  56.0W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  55.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.5N  58.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.2N  61.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N  64.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N  67.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.4N  72.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  20SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N  76.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  56.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


NNNN