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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE BORDER OF HAITI.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* MONTSERRAT
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER OF HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  63.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  63.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  62.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N  65.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.8N  67.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N  70.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N  73.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.9N  77.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N  79.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N  80.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N  63.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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