ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED
FOR THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  75.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  75.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  74.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N  77.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.3N  80.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N  82.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.3N  83.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N  84.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 31.0N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  75.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


NNNN