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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
1100 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevisis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 60.2 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a west to
west-northwest motion with the same forward speed is expected over
the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will
move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands early Thursday,
and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later on
Thursday, and be near or just north of the north coast of the
Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are confined to heavy squalls to the north and
east of the center. No significant change in strength or perhaps
some slight weakening is anticipated during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands early Thursday, and reach the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands
tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach
portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and
Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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