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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

...ERIKA PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 64.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic
from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla
Saona.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should
monitor the progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.0 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.  On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin
Islands this evening, move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and
move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands for the next
few hours, and reach the Virgin Islands this evening and Puerto
Rico tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area in the Leeward Islands for the next few hours.  Tropical
storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the
Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks
and Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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