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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12)
MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 5(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 9(30) 2(32) 1(33) X(33)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 4(22) 2(24) 1(25)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 3(23) X(23)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 3(24) 1(25)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 3(19) 2(21)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) 2(19)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 3(15)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 3(17)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 4(20)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 4(23)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 4(18)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) 1(20)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X 17(17) 10(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 7 31(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
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