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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015

Dolores's satellite presentation is slowly deteriorating.  Cloud
tops have been warming since the last advisory, and visible and
microwave imagery indicate that dry air is wrapping into the
circulation.  The intensity is estimated to have decreased to 90 kt
based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT.  Progressively cooler water, a drier and more stable
environment, and increasing shear in about three days will all
contribute to continued weakening through the entire forecast
period.  The intensity models are in good agreement on the rate of
weakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast
is very close to the IVCN intensity consensus.  Due to the
increasingly hostile environment, Dolores could become a remnant
low by day 4.

Dolores has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of
300/7 kt.  A building mid-level ridge to the northeast should keep
the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours,
followed by a turn to the northwest and north-northwest once Dolores
reaches the western periphery of the ridge.  The GFDL remains an
eastern outlier after 36 hours, but otherwise the rest of the models
are in very good agreement on Dolores's future track. The NHC track
forecast is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF, and no major
changes from the previous forecast were required on this cycle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 20.2N 112.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 20.6N 113.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 21.7N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 23.0N 118.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 26.8N 121.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 30.0N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1800Z 30.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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