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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 113.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central portion of the Baja California peninsula
and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress
of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area in the southwestern
United States, including flash flood watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to Mexico, please
monitor products issued by the meteorological service of Mexico.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 113.6
West.  The depression is moving toward the north near 15 mph.  A
turn toward the north-northeast at a slightly faster forward speed
is expected on Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of the
depression will move across the south-central Baja California
peninsula tonight, across the Gulf of California and extreme
northwestern Mexico on Monday, and into southern Arizona Monday
night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is expected during the next day or so, and
the depression is likely to become a remnant low Monday night and
dissipate soon thereafter.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across
portions of the Baja California peninsula, as well as the
northwestern Mexican state of Sonora through Tuesday.  Moisture
from this system is expected to spread northward and produce heavy
rains over portions of southern California and Arizona on Monday and
Tuesday.  This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across
central portions of the Baja California peninsula and extreme
northwestern mainland Mexico through Monday, especially in areas of
higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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