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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

...PATRICIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 100.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 100.5 West. Patricia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn
toward the north on Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Patricia should be near the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Patricia is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday morning and
a major hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the warning areas by late Thursday or early Friday, and possible
within the tropical storm watch area by late Thursday or early
Friday.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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