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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
700 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...DEPRESSION HEADED TOWARD FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 88.1W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County line

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the United States east coast from northern Florida
through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected to
begin later today, and a turn toward the northeast is forecast
tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone
will approach the northwest Florida coast in the warning area on
Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and
could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon.  Hurricane
conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area
beginning Thursday afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a
possibility of life-threatening inundation within the next 48 hours
along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass.  For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons located
within these areas should be prepared to take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water.  Promptly follow
any instructions from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 feet
Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka...3 to 5 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet.
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over western Cuba through
today, with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches.  These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over
portions of central and northern Florida through Friday, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.  Coastal areas of
Georgia and the Carolinas are expected to receive storm total
rainfall of 4 to 7 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
possible through Saturday morning.  These rains may cause flooding
and flash flooding.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into
Thursday morning mainly across central Florida.  A few tornadoes are
possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida
and southeast Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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