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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
0900 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  65.9W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE  90SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  65.9W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  65.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N  66.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 36.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 40.0N  56.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 42.0N  53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N  65.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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