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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016

Recent SSM/I and AMSR-2 data indicate that the center of Tropical
Depression Two-E has become centrally located in the convective
overcast, and first-light visible imagery shows a large convective
burst near the center.  Satellite intensity estimates at 1200Z were
30 kt from TAFB and SAB.  Based on the increased organization since
that time and a recent CIMSS ADT estimate of 35 kt, the depression
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Agatha, the first named storm of the
2016 eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The initial motion is 295/10.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the storm should steer it generally west-northwestward for
24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west.  Late in the
forecast period, a turn toward the west-southwest is expected as
the remnants of Agatha come under the influence of a larger
tropical weather system to the east.  The new forecast track is
shifted to the north of the previous track based on the initial
position and motion.  However, it lies to the south of the various
consensus models.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12-24
hours while Agatha remains in a light/moderate shear environment
over relatively warm sea surface temperatures.  Beyond that time, a
combination of strong southwesterly shear and cooler sea surface
temperatures should cause a steady weakening.  Agatha is expected
to weaken to a depression by 48 hours, a remnant low by 72 hours,
and dissipate completely by 120 hours.

Agatha is the latest first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific
since Ava of 1969.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 15.6N 118.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 16.2N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 17.0N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 17.7N 124.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 18.1N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 17.0N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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