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TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016
Blas continues to decay. The intensity and coverage of the
associated deep convection has been shrinking throughout the day,
and the remaining cold cloud tops are mainly confined to the
northwestern portion of the circulation. The Dvorak T-numbers
are falling, and a blend of the latest classifications support
lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt. The storm is currently
over cool 24 C waters and embedded in a dry air mass. These
conditions combined with an increase in southwesterly shear should
cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. The
global models show the remnant low dissipating in about 4 days, and
that is reflected in the official forecast.
The weakening system is still moving northwestward at about 10 kt.
A turn toward the west is predicted over the next day or so when
Blas becomes an even shallower system and is steered by the
low-level trade wind flow. The NHC official track forecast has
been adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to come into
better agreement with the latest guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 20.8N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 21.1N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 21.2N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0600Z 21.0N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 20.6N 141.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 19.5N 145.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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