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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016

Estelle has generally changed little since the previous advisory.
The convective pattern still consists of a well organized curved
band that covers much of the eastern half of the circulation and
fragmented bands to the west of the center.  The initial wind speed
is held at 60 kt for this advisory, which is an average of the
Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Estelle is crossing the
26 deg C isotherm and will be moving over progressively cooler water
during the next few days.  In addition, the storm will also be
moving into an atmosphere of drier air and increasing westerly
shear.  Given these expected environmental conditions, steady
weakening is forecast during the period, and Estelle will likely
become a post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days when it is over SSTs
around 22 deg C.

The storm is moving westward at about 11 kt on the southwest side
of a large subtropical ridge centered over the southern United
States.  Estelle is forecast to reach the western periphery of the
ridge in a couple of days, which should induce a turn to the
northwest.  A northwestward motion is expected to continue until
the system dissipates in 4 to 5 days.  The models are in good
agreement on this overall scenario, and the new NHC track forecast
is largely an update of the previous one.  This track prediction is
in best agreement with a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 19.2N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 19.5N 125.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 20.2N 128.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 21.0N 130.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 22.1N 133.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  23/1200Z 25.6N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z 29.4N 141.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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