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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016
Estelle continues to feature a small area of deep convection mainly
to the northwest of the estimated low-level center location. The
initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Weakening is forecast since
Estelle will be moving over cooler SSTs and the shear is expected
to increase. These factors should result in Estelle losing
organized deep convection and becoming post-tropical in 24 to 36
hours. The remnant low of Estelle should dissipate in 4 or 5 days.
The initial motion estimate is 285/13, as Estelle is being steered
by a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-
central United States. Estelle should continue moving around the
periphery of the ridge and turn northwestward by 48 hours, and this
northwestward motion should continue through dissipation. The new
NHC track forecast is a little left of the previous one through 48
hours and is near the latest TVCN consensus. A larger westward
adjustment was made at days 3 and 4, trending toward a leftward
shift in the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 20.1N 128.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 20.8N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 21.9N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 23.3N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z 24.8N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z 27.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z 30.0N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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