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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.8N 107.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.9N 112.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.8N 116.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 106.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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