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HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
800 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016

Seymour is rapidly weakening due to a combination of southwesterly
vertical wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures, with
recent microwave imagery showing the low-level center becoming
exposed to the south of the remaining deep convection.  The initial
intensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of satellite
intensity estimates and continuity from the last advisory, and it is
possible this could be generous.  Rapid weakening should continue,
and Seymour is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today,
become a remnant low in 36 hours or less, and dissipate completely
between 48-72 hours.

The initial motion is 335/10.  Seymour is forecast to turn northward
later today, and then north-northeastward tonight or on Friday ahead
of a large deep-layer trough located well offshore of the west coast
of the United States.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered
and the new forecast track, which lies near the center of the
guidance envelope, is an update of the previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 20.2N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 21.5N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 23.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 24.3N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 25.6N 120.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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