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TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
200 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016
A combination of cold sea surface temperatures and 35 kt of
southwesterly shear has reduced Seymour to an almost convection-less
swirl of clouds. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based
on a blend of satellite intensity estimates, and this could be
generous. Rapid weakening should continue, and Seymour is forecast
to become a remnant low in 24 hours or less, and dissipate
completely between 48-72 hours.
The initial motion is 345/10. Seymour is forecast to turn northward
during the next several hours, and then northeastward tonight
or on Friday ahead of a large deep-layer trough located well
offshore of the west coast of the United States. The new track
forecast is a little to the left and a little faster than the
previous track, and it remains near the center of the guidance
envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 21.2N 123.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 22.6N 122.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 24.0N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 25.0N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 26.4N 120.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Forecaster Beven
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