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Tropical Depression One Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017
1100 AM AST Thu Apr 20 2017

Conventional satellite imagery indicate that the convection,
although not very deep, has become more symmetric around the center,
suggesting that the subtropical cyclone has transitioned into a
tropical depression. This is supported by AMSU data this morning
that shows that the system has developed a weak, but warm core. This
transition is a common process, and does not change the previous
intensity or track forecasts that call for the depression to
become a remnant low later today, and become absorbed by a larger
low tonight or early Friday.  It is estimated that the depression is
producing winds of 30 kt within some convective bands. Since the
circulation is already becoming elongated, a weakening trend is
likely to begin soon.

The depression is moving toward the northwest at 12 kt, and this
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
to continue until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 36.1N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 38.0N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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