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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032017
2100 UTC MON JUN 19 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO HIGH ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  88.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  88.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  88.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.0N  89.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.2N  90.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.9N  91.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 100SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.7N  92.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...90NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 32.0N  93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 35.5N  90.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N  88.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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