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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017

Franklin's center continues to move over the land mass of the
Yucatan Peninsula.  Since this area is relatively flat, only slow
weakening is likely occurring.  The morning sounding from Merida,
located over northwest Yucatan, showed winds near 40 kt just above
the surface.  Assuming that these winds are coming down to the
surface somewhere within the circulation, the initial intensity is
estimated to be 40 kt.  Some additional weakening should occur as
long as the center remains over land.  A restrengthening trend is
forecast to begin when the center moves into the Bay of Campeche
later today or tonight.  Even though Franklin will be moving
over very high SSTs while over the Bay of Campeche, the global
models show northerly shear affecting the cyclone as it nears the
southwest Gulf coast of Mexico.  Although this shear could impede
intensification, Franklin could be near hurricane intensity when it
nears the coast late Wednesday.  Therefore, it is prudent to
maintain the Hurricane Watch.

The motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt.  A
mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north
of Franklin over the next couple of days.  This should cause the
tropical cyclone to move west-northwestward to westward until its
second landfall.  The official track forecast is similar to the
ECMWF solution and to the previous NHC forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 19.6N  89.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 20.0N  91.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  09/1200Z 20.3N  93.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 20.4N  95.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 20.3N  97.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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