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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

Although the shear affecting Jose for the past several days appears
to be relenting, deep convection is still limited to the eastern
semicircle of the cyclone, perhaps in part due to dry air that was
observed earlier today.  A blend a objective and subjective current
intensity estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt.

No change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains
near the multi-model consensus.  Based on SHIPS diagnostics from the
GFS and ECMWF models, Jose should become embedded in a more humid
environment beginning in about 12 h, and this, along with warm
SSTSs, should support at least gradual strengthening.  The intensity
guidance remains in fairly good agreement that Jose will become a
hurricane again tomorrow, and will have about 48-72 hours to
intensify further before the shear increases substantially.  Toward
the end of the forecast, gradual weakening is forecast, but Jose is
still expected to be a hurricane at day 5.

Much like the intensity forecast, very little change has been made
to the NHC track forecast.  Based on a few recent microwave images,
Jose seems to be continuing to move west-northwestward at around
7 kt.  Jose is still expected to track along the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward
the north over the next 2 days.  Aside from the UKMET, which
remains an outlier, the models are in fairly good agreement on the
future heading of Jose, and vary mostly in speed.  The new NHC
forecast continues to generally split the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is close to HCCA, which should account for the UKMET's recent west
bias.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.

2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur.  Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 25.5N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 26.1N  69.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 26.9N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 27.9N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 29.0N  72.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 31.4N  72.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 34.2N  71.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 37.0N  70.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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