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Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
100 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...ALBERTO MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

Interests along the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of Alberto. Tropical storm and storm surge
watches could be required for portions of this area later today or
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 86.5 West.  The
storm has been nearly stationary during the past several hours.
However, a general slow motion toward the north is expected through
the weekend, followed by a northwest turn by Monday. On the foreast
track, Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the
Yucatan peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday
morning, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday
night, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwestern Florida.  Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area through Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of
the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For
more information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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