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Remnants Of Beryl Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

The remains of the center of Beryl have crossed Dominica during
the past few hours, accompanied by a disorganized area of
convection.  Radar and surface observations continue to show that
the system is an open wave.  There have been no observations of
sustained tropical-storm-force winds from Dominica or Guadeloupe, so
the initial intensity is decreased to a probably generous 35 kt.  In
the short term, increasing vertical wind shear should cause
continued weakening of the system, with the remains of the center
dissipating in the next 12 h.

Between 72-120 h, there may be an opportunity for the remnants of
Beryl to regenerate into a tropical cyclone when the system moves
through the Bahamas and into the southwestern Atlantic.  However,
due to a lack of agreement by the dynamical models and the
uncertainty about how the tropical wave will be disrupted by passage
over Hispaniola, the chances of regeneration are currently in the
low category.

The initial motion estimate is 290/23 kt. The remnants of Beryl
should maintain this rapid west-northwestward motion for the next
12 hours as they move through the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the
south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

This is the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane
Center.  Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Key Messages:

1. As the tropical wave moves across the northeastern Caribbean Sea,
strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains are possible across the
Leeward Islands tonight and Monday, and these conditions expected to
spread across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola by
Monday night.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 15.8N  62.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE
 12H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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