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BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence Advisory Number  74
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL062018
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMING AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA AS
IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...

...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS WHILE
FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 81.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...125 KM WSW OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF HAGERSTOWN MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across parts of
far southern Virginia.

Flash flood watches are in effect for portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States and southern New England.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Florence was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 81.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some
acceleration over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday as Florence
transitions into an extratropical cyclone.  Some of the model
guidance takes a segment of Florence southward offshore the
Mid-Atlantic coast between Wednesday and Friday which forms a new
low pressure area, which will need to be watched.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy to excessive
rainfall over the next couple of days. Portions of the northern Mid-
Atlantic states west of Interstate 95 into southern New York and
southern New England are expected to receive an additional 2 to 4
inches of rain...with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes remain possible across eastern
Virginia, eastern Maryland, southeast Pennsylvania, and Delaware for
the remainder of the day.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 39.0N  81.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  18/0600Z 39.8N  79.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  18/1800Z 41.7N  72.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  19/0600Z 42.5N  66.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/1800Z 42.2N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1800Z 41.1N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/1800Z 42.7N  39.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/1800Z 49.6N  27.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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