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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING
COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  85.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  85.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  86.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N  85.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N  86.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N  86.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N  85.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 33.7N  80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N  68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N  85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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