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Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.  A hurricane watch will likely be
required for a portion of this area today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.5 West.  Michael is moving toward
the north near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A general northward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days.  On
the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan
Channel or extreme western Cuba today, cross the eastern Gulf of
Mexico later today through Tuesday night, and approach the United
States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days,
and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning to spread
across portions of the Cuban coast within the warning area.
Tropical storm conditions are also very close to the coast of
Mexico within the warning area.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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