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Hurricane Bud Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Bud has slowed down since the previous advisory and is now crawling
northwestward at 325/03 kt. No changes were required to the previous
forecast track due to the recent NHC model guidance remaining
tightly packed and in excellent agreement on both track and forward
speed. Bud should turn toward the north-northwest later this evening
and continue that motion for another 24 h or so. After that, the
cyclone is expected to turn northward at a slightly faster forward
speed on Thursday and Friday, passing over the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula as a weakening tropical storm by
Friday morning. By Saturday, Bud or its remnants are forecast to
move inland over western mainland Mexico, and dissipate over
northwestern Mexico by Sunday. Although it is unlikely that the
low-level circulation will be able to make it across the high
coastal mountains of western Mexico, a 120-h forecast point has been
provided for continuity purposes, and would be more representative
of the location of Bud's remnant mid-level circulation. The new NHC
forecast track is basically on top of the previous advisory track,
and remains close to a blend of the various consensus models.

Bud's slow motion over already marginally warm SSTs and near zero
upper-ocean heat content is likely producing significant cold
upwelling beneath the cyclone, a negative factor that is forecast to
worsen over the next 48 hours. The result should be continued rapid
weakening right up until the time Bud approaches southern Baja
California on Thursday. Expected land interaction thereafter will
further weaken the cyclone, and Bud could become a remnant low or
even dissipate before it reaches mainland Mexico in 96 hours. The
official intensity forecast is close to a blend of the intensity
consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

Based on the forecast track and 34-kt wind radii, a Tropical Storm
Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur on the
next advisory package.

Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and
northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest
over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash
flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 18.6N 108.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 19.1N 108.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 20.8N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 22.0N 110.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 25.2N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 29.3N 110.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  17/1800Z 35.0N 110.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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