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Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

...BUD MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...MOST OF THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 109.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM E OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico
* Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.  A Tropical Storm Watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area, in this case within the next 6 hours across Baja California
Sur, and within the next 12 to 24 hours across western Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 109.8 West. Bud is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.
On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to continue
moving along the east coast of southern Baja California Sur
overnight and move over the Gulf of California on Friday.  The
weakening cyclone is expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday
night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Recent satellite data indicate that these winds are occuring
primarily over water within a small area to the east of the center.
Bud is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday and
dissipate on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should begin to abate during
the next few hours within the warning area.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Baja California Sur watch
area overnight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
mainland Mexico watch area beginning Friday morning.

RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja
California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern
Mexico through Saturday.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts
of 3 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of western mainland Mexico and the southern Baja
California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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