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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Fabio's presentation continues to improve on visible, IR, and
microwave imagery.  Although a pronounced dry slot is still present
just north and east of the low-level center, convection appears to
be increasing, suggesting that the cyclone is getting closer to
closing off its inner core.  The initial intensity has been
increased to 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak fix from TAFB and an
earlier SATCON estimate of 53 kt.

The statistical intensity guidance continues to forecast a
remarkable rate of intensification for Fabio over the next two days.
The DSHP and LGEM models both bring Fabio to near or above category
5 strength within 48 hours, while the SHIPS RII and DTOPS models
suggest there is a greater than 50 percent probability of an
increase of 40 kt over the next 24 hours.  On the other hand, the
dynamical HWRF and HMON models show only limited strengthening.
Given that those two models both missed the previous two rapid
intensification cases this season, and the fact that the warm SSTs
and very low shear seem indicative of rapid intensification, the
forecast favors the statistical models, and shows Fabio becoming a
major hurricane on Tuesday.  By 72 h, Fabio will be moving over
cooler waters and into a much more stable environment which should
cause rapid weakening to begin.  Despite the very high rate of
intensification shown by the NHC forecast, it is actually lower than
the HCCA and FSSE models, and lies between those and the simple
intensity consensus IVCN.  By the end of the forecast period, the
forecast is close to all of the intensity consensus aids.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11.  A late-arriving WindSat
pass showed that the center of Fabio was a little north of the
previous estimate, so the best track and forecast have been
adjusted slightly in that direction.  Otherwise, no change has been
made to the track forecast or reasoning.  A mid-level ridge to
the north should keep the cyclone moving west-northwestward at a
similar forward speed through most of the forecast period.  The NHC
track forecast remains near the various consensus aids, and falls in
the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 12.4N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 12.9N 110.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 13.5N 112.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 14.3N 114.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 15.2N 116.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 17.2N 122.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 23.0N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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