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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Hurricane Fabio is on a strengthening trend.  Recent microwave and
infrared satellite images show that the inner core of the hurricane
has become better established, but the eye has not yet cleared out
in geostationary satellite images.  The banding features beyond the
inner core are also better organized and more symmetric around the
center.  The initial intensity is increased slightly to 80 kt, which
is at the high end of the Dvorak estimates.

Additional strengthening is expected overnight and on Tuesday as
Fabio moves into a region of lower wind shear, and remains over warm
waters and in a fairly moist air mass.  The NHC forecast shows a
peak intensity of 100 kt at 24 hours, but given the expected
favorable environmental conditions, Fabio could reach its highest
intensity between the 12- and 24-h periods.  Thereafter, steady or
even rapid weakening is forecast as the hurricane crosses the 26
degree C isotherm and moves into a progressively drier airmass.  The
NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the
short term, but falls in line with the consensus aids at 48 hours
and beyond.

Fabio has jogged to the north and sped up some since the previous
advisory, with the initial motion estimated to be 300/12 kt.  The
track forecast is relatively straightforward.  Fabio is expected
to move west-northwestward to northwestward at a slightly faster
forward speed during the next several days while it moves around the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  The forward speed
should decrease by the end of the forecast period when the system is
forecast to be shallower and becomes more influenced by easterly
low-level flow.  The track models are in very good agreement, and
the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 14.5N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 15.3N 114.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 16.3N 117.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 17.6N 120.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 19.0N 122.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 22.3N 127.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 25.4N 131.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 27.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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