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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018

Fabio's convective structure has continued to degrade over the past
several hours, and convective banding has become very limited.
Satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased
accordingly and the initial intensity has been set at 55 kt based on
a blend of the subjective data-T and CI numbers.  Fabio is moving
over 23 to 24 deg C waters, and these cold waters will cause the
cyclone to continue weakening for the next day or so until it
eventually becomes a remnant low by the weekend.  The new intensity
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and closely
follows the multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 305/15. An SSMIS overpass at 1120 UTC
indicated that the center of Fabio was located a little to the
northwest of the previous estimate. For that reason, the new NHC
track forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory for the
first 36 hours, but is otherwise very similar. Fabio will continue
on a west-northwest to northwest heading for the next 24-36 hours
while it remains a tropical cyclone. Beyond that time, the remnants
of Fabio will slow down and be steered more west-northwestward to
westward by the low-level trade wind flow. All of the dynamical
models remain in very good agreement on the track of Fabio, and the
NHC forecast is still close to HCCA and TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 20.2N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 21.3N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 22.5N 129.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 23.5N 131.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z 24.2N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z 25.4N 138.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1200Z 26.0N 141.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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