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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...ILEANA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 101.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Los Barilles to Todo Santos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A watch is issued before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 101.9 West.  Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn
toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, with a continued
west-northwestward track at a reduced forward speed into Wednesday.
On the forecast track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel
to and just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Ileana is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later
today.  Gradual weakening is expected to begin Tuesday night, and
Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday afternoon or evening
due to its proximity to the much larger Tropical Storm or Hurricane
John located to its southwest.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight
and early Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within
portions of the warning area through early Tuesday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area over southern Baja
California Sur by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night.  These rains may
cause flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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