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Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018
Paul has not strengthened since the last advisory. Satellite
imagery shows that the disorganized low-level center is located
on the northeastern edge of the main convective mass, while the
cyclone is being influenced by fairly strong easterly shear. The
advisory intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak
estimate from TAFB. Although the shear is forecast to relax
during the next couple of days, Paul will then be moving over
marginal SSTs and into a drier air mass. Therefore only modest
strengthening is predicted during the next day or so, followed by a
leveling off of the intensity. The official forecast is a little
below the previous one, but above most of the latest numerical
guidance.
Paul is moving slowly northwestward, or 320/7 kt. The cyclone is
expected to continue northwestward on the western side of a weak
mid-level ridge over the next day or so. Later in the forecast
period, a ridge to the north of the system should cause Paul to
turn toward the west-northwest. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical
model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 17.9N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 20.1N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 23.7N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 24.5N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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