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Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Sergio still has its annular-like structure, but the surrounding
convection is not as strong as earlier today. Dvorak objective and
subjective numbers only support 80 kt at this time. Little
significant change in strength is anticipated during the next 12 to
24 hours while the waters are still relatively warm. In about 2
days, the cyclone should encounter cooler waters, and a weakening
trend at a faster rate is anticipated. Sergio is forecast to be a
tropical storm by the time it is approaching the Baja California
peninsula.

Sergio is currently embedded within light steering currents and
is barely moving toward the northwest at 3 kt. A northward drift is
expected during the next 24 hours, but after that time, a broad
mid-level trough is forecast to amplify over the west coast of the
U.S., and this flow pattern should force Sergio to recurve
northeastward with increasing forward speed.  The track guidance is
in remarkably good agreement, basically on top of each other for the
next 3 days, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. Beyond
3 days, models are in less agreement, but still bring the cyclone
very near the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in 4
days or so.  The NHC forecast is not very different from the
previous one and is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 14.9N 127.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 25.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 32.0N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

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