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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TARA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.4 West. Tara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h) and this slow
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.  A slightly
faster westward motion is forecast to begin after mid-week. On the
forecast track, the center of Tara is expected to remain near or
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.  These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by tonight or Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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