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Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018
 
The cloud pattern associated with Vicente is quite peculiar. In
addition on being unusually small, it has an intermittent eye
feature surrounded by moderate to shallow convection. A very useful
ASCAT pass a few hours ago showed that Vicente has a very tight
circulation with maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt, and the
tropical-storm-force winds extend only 20 n mi from the center.
On this basis, and an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. Now
that the circulation is farther from land, the chances of some
slight strengthening have increased in the next 24 to 36 hours
before Vicente encounters the larger circulation of Willa. In fact,
most of the global models advertise that in about 3 days or so
Vicente will dissipate, and so does the official forecast.
 
Satellite fixes indicate that Vicente is moving toward the west or
265 degrees at 8 kt. The nose of a strong subtropical ridge is
forecast to amplify and expand westward. This flow pattern should
force Vicente to move on a west or even west-southwest track for
the next 24 to 36 hours. Then as the cyclone reaches the
southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern
portion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the
northwest and north. Vicente should become absorbed by the larger
Willa and dissipation could occur earlier than indicated in the
forecast at this time given the solution of the global models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 14.6N  94.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 14.0N  95.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 13.7N  97.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 14.0N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Avila
 
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