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Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Vicente's satellite presentation hasn't changed much, with the
low-level circulation located near the northeastern edge of a rather
elongated area of deep convection. Satellite classifications remain
unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on
continuity with the earlier ASCAT pass. Northeasterly shear is
expected to continue affecting Vicente, and the global models show
the cyclone dissipating within the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC
forecast brings Vicente near the coast of southwestern Mexico as a
depression in 36 hours and inland as a remnant low by 48 hours, but
it wouldn't be surprising if the small cyclone dissipated sooner.
Regardless of the eventual details of Vicente's demise, the main
hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern and
southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash
flooding.

The initial motion estimate remains south of due west or 260/09.
Vicente should be steered around the southwestern and western edge
of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico through
dissipation. The spread in the model trackers remains quite large,
as they are having difficulty tracking the small cyclone. For this
cycle, the new NHC forecast has been adjusted to the left of the
previous one through 12 to 24 hours due to the initial position and
motion. After that time, the NHC track generally follows a blend of
the previous official forecast and the fields from the latest global
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 13.9N  98.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 14.3N  99.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 15.7N 101.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 17.5N 103.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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