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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
AND FOR MAGDALEN ISLANDS...AND FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM FUNDY NATIONAL
PARK TO SHEDIAC. ALSO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO BOAT HARBOUR.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC.
* FRANCOIS TO BOAT HARBOUR.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS
A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N  77.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 130SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N  77.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  77.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.0N  75.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.2N  72.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.2N  67.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 250SE 200SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 44.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 250SE 200SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 52.5N  55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 57.5N  40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N  77.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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