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Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Strong shear associated with an upper-level trough off the southeast
U.S. coast continues to affect Jerry, and the low-level center is
exposed to the west-southwest of the main convective mass.
Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicated that the intensity remains near 55 kt.  However,
if the current sheared state persists, then a weakening trend is
likely to commence soon.  For now, the official forecast will only
show a very slow weakening over the next few days.  This prediction
is somewhat higher than the intensity model consensus.  It should be
noted that experience has shown that tropical cyclones at
subtropical latitudes tend to be more resilient to shear than those
in the deep tropics.

Jerry has slowed its forward speed and is now moving north-
northwestward at around 6 kt.  The storm will continue passing
through a break in the subtropical ridge through tonight.  On
Tuesday, a trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast will cause
Jerry to turn northward.  Within a couple of days, the trough
should steer the tropical cyclone northeastward at a faster forward
speed.  In days 3-5, Jerry should move east-northeastward to
eastward while embedded in the southern portion of the mid-latitude
westerlies.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous
one and close to the model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 28.1N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 29.2N  68.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 30.4N  68.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 31.8N  67.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 33.3N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 35.8N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 37.0N  53.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 37.0N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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