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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  63.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  63.9W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  63.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.5N  64.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.1N  65.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N  65.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.1N  65.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.6N  64.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 26.5N  65.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 27.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N  63.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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