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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  64.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  64.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  64.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.0N  65.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N  65.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N  65.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N  65.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.6N  65.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.0N  65.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N  64.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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