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Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
800 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF KAREN MOVED OVER VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...
...HEAVY SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM N OF CULEBRA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 045 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Surface observations indicate that the broad circulation center of
Karen moved near or over the islands of Vieques and Culebra during
the past hour or so. At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of
Tropical Storm Karen was estimated near latitude 18.5 North,
longitude 65.3 West. Karen has been moving toward the northeast
near 10 mph (16 km/h). However, Karen should move toward the
north-northeast with some increase in forward speed tonight, with
this motion continuing through Wednesday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Karen will move away from Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands during the next few hours, but the strong squalls
which are to the south of the center will continue to affect that
area through tonight. Karen should move over the western Atlantic
later tonight and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds area confined mostly to the southeast of the
center. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.  St. Thomas has recently
reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h)

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations
and data from a reconnaissance plane is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area.  Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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