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Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Ivo has been basically devoid of deep convection since about 0300
UTC, and the cyclone is on its way to becoming a remnant low.  A
pair of recent ASCAT passes indicate that the maximum winds have
decreased, and the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly
generous 30 kt, which makes Ivo a tropical depression. Ivo is
currently over 24 degree C SSTs and in a dry and stable environment.
Since these conditions are expected to become even more hostile
during the next couple of days, Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low later today and dissipate within a couple of days.

The depression is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt.  A slight
turn to the north with a notable decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next day or two while the shallow cyclone is
steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast lies near
the various consensus models.

Even though Ivo is weakening, swells generated by the system are
affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula and southern California.  These swells are likely to
continue through the day and could cause rip currents.  See products
from your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 24.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 25.8N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0600Z 26.8N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1800Z 27.5N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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