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Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019
Juliette's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several
hours. If anything, the spiral bands appear to have improved a bit
in the western portion of the cyclone. However, subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have not increased, and the
initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory.
During the next 12 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to traverse
decreasing SSTs and move into a more dry, stable air mass, and
encounter increasing southwesterly shear. These increasingly
inhibiting environmental factors should cause the cyclone to
gradually weaken further, and degenerate into a remnant low in about
4 days, as the large-scale models indicate. The NHC forecast is
just an update of the previous one, and follows a blend of the HCCA
and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance.
The initial motion is a little to the right of the last
advisory package, and is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
A turn back to the west-northwest within the steering flow produced
by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should
occur during the next 24 hours. After that, Juliette should
continue moving in this general direction, with some increase in
forward speed, through the 48 hour period. Afterward, a westward
motion should begin as Juliette degenerates into a vertically
shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes
steered by the low-level easterly flow. The official forecast is a
little to the right of the previous advisory and lies between the
HCCA and TVCE consensus models, and is nudged a bit toward the GEFS
ensemble mean.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 20.2N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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