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Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019
Juliette has not produced any deep convection for almost 18 hours,
and it is therefore being declared a post-tropical cyclone. A
recent ASCAT-C pass showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds to the
north of the center, and the initial intensity is therefore being
set at 35 kt. A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected
with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple
of days. After 48 hours, water temperatures do increase a bit to
near 26C, but by then incredibly belligerent westerly shear, on the
order of 40-50 kt, is expected to be affecting the remnant low.
Still, the global models carry a low through the next 5 days, and
that is reflected in the official forecast.
The initial motion is 280/11 kt. The low should turn on a due west
heading for the next 2-3 days, steered by the low-level trade
winds. After day 3, the remnant low is expected to interact with a
mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which
could cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
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